Using Seasonal Award Count to Predict Oscar’s Big Six

One indicator that can help you determine your Oscar picks is to pay attention to other awards shows. Each awards season, ceremonies like the Screen Actors Guild Awards, the Golden Globes, The British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTA’s), and critics’ circle awards can help your prediction system., which says the Oscars are one of the year’s most popular gambling events, posts odds. Here’s a list of how all of that stacks up when considered together.

Best Picture:

– BAFTA: “The Artist”
– NY Critics’ Circle: “The Artist”
– Golden Globes: “The Descendants” (Drama) and “The Artist” (Musical or Comedy)
– Gambling911: As of February 22, the site determined that “The Artist” is “a lock.”

What this means: “The Artist” may have been a silent movie, but it’s not likely to be a silent speech.

Best Director:

BAFTA: Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
– NY Critics’ Circle: Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
– Globe: Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
– Gambling911: As of February 22, the site determined that Michel Hazanavicius is “a lock” for “The Artist.”

What this means: The number of awards here suggests another win for “The Artist,” but the Academy loves Martin Scorsese, and there is a chance we may see a split here between Best Picture and Best Director.

Best Actress:

– BAFTA: Meryl Streep
– SAG: Viola Davis
– NY Critics’ Circle: Meryl Streep
– Globe: Meryl Streep (Drama) and Michelle Williams (Comedy or Drama)
– Gambling911: Meryl (Odds, -120), Viola (Odds, -125). These actresses are very close to tied.
What this means: Streep, the most nominated actress in the history of the Oscars, has three awards. Viola Davis has one, but is virtually tied with Streep according to Gambling911. Is there an upset in the works?

Best Actor:

– BAFTA: Jean DuJardin
– SAG: Jean DuJardin
– NY Critics’ Circle: Brad Pitt
– Golden Globe: George Clooney (Drama) and Jean DuJardin (Musical or Comedy)
– Gambling911: George Clooney (even), Jean DuJardin (-130)

What this means: Jean DuJardin, who carried an entire film using only his face and body language, already has three awards to Pitt’s one and Clooney’s one. Clooney’s performance in “The Descendants” is widely considered to be his career best. DuJardin, the technical favorite on Gambling911, is probably a safe bet.

Best Supporting Actress:

– BAFTA: Octavia Spencer
– SAG: Octavia Spencer
– Golden Globe: Octavia Spencer
– NY Critics’ Circle: Jessica Chastain
Gambling911: As of February 22, the site considers Octavia Spencer “a lock.”

What this means: Octavia Spencer is simply unstoppable this season. (The NY Critics’ Circle did not award Jessica Chastain for a single performance as much as recognize that she had six films release in 2011.)

Best Supporting Actor:

– BAFTA: Christopher Plummer
– SAG: Christopher Plummer
– Golden Globe: Christopher Plummer
– NY Critics’ Circle: Albert Brooks
– Gambling911: As of February 22, Christopher Plummer is considered “a lock.”

What this means: Christopher Plummer, is a celebrated, never-awarded elderly actor loved as Captain von Trapp in “The Sound of Music.” He took a brave role celebrating the coming out process, during a time when the issue is politically charged. There is only one way this one will unfold: the hills are alive with the sound of Oscar.

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