Cowboys Vs. 49ers: A Fan’s Prediction

First off, I do believe the Dallas Cowboys are a better team than the San Francisco 49ers. They would beat the 49ers at a neutral site 9 out of 10 times, assuming they have a healthy roster. But the 49ers have a lot going for them this week, and these factors should make the game a nail biter.

1. The Cowboys are banged up. Dez Bryant couldn’t run routes in the second half of last week’s game. If he was healthy, I’d pick the Cowboys to win for sure. As matchups go, Tarell Brown and/or Shawntae Spencer couldn’t hang with Bryant. But I don’t think he will be healthy by Sunday, which gives the 49ers a shot.
On defense, the Cowboys top three corners are hurt, and there is a chance that they all won’t play. I don’t believe the 49ers are going to go five wide to try to exploit the Cowboys secondary. I don’t think the offense is sophisticated enough to do that. But, I do believe Alex Smith will be more inclined to test the Cowboys secondary in the red zone. And if the 49ers can score touchdowns in the red zone, they have a legitimate shot at winning this game.

2. The 49ers are riding high and all the pressure is on the Cowboys and Tony Romo. I don’t believe that Romo is going to have a horrible game just because he is under pressure. But the 49ers have the defense to hang around in this game, and there’s no question that Romo has had problems late in games.
I know the 49ers are coming off a victory against an awful football team. Yet, you could argue the 49ers have more belief in themselves right now than they’ve had since the Steve Mariucci years. Alex Smith may build off the momentum of his mistake-free performance against the Seahawks. If he could put together another 90-plus QB rating, the 49ers should have a good chance.

Keys to the game
1. Alex Smith and the 49ers offense get off to a fast start
You know what would kill the 49ers momentum? Having the home crowd boo Smith for making early mistakes. Plus, if the 49ers fall behind by two scores, maybe even a touchdown, they are going to have a hard time coming back anyway. Demarcus Ware and Co, will destroy the 49ers offense if they are one-dimensional. So the 49ers need to put some points on the board in the first quarter.

2. The 49ers must score touchdowns in the red zone
Touchdowns. That means multiple. Not one, like they had against the Seahawks (not counting the two special teams scores by Ginn). I’d argue that the 49ers will need three touchdowns to win this game, and to do that they need to target Braylon Edwards and Vernon Davis when they are being covered man to man in the red zone.

3. The 49ers pass rush must pressure Romo
I promise the 49ers will get destroyed if Romo feels comfortable in the pocket. Even with a hobbled Bryant, the Cowboys have weapons that Romo will find if he has all day to throw. But the Cowboys offensive line is young and inexperienced, giving the 49ers a chance to replicate their 5-sack performance in Week 1. Romo might have the best pocket presence in the entire NFL, but like any quarterback, he is liable to make mistakes when he feels pressure. If Romo doesn’t trust his offensive line, he will be forced to get rid of the ball earlier than he wants, and that’s when the 49ers secondary could make a play.

Prediction
If you look at the Cowboys and 49ers rosters for this Sunday’s game, I think most would agree that they’re pretty even excepts for one glaring difference: quarterback. So how could I possibly take the 49ers? Well, I believe the difference in quarterback play could be evened out by the 49ers superior special teams, home-field advantage and momentum from the first week. I acknowledge that if the 49ers have to play from behind, they could easily get blasted. But I think this game will be played closely, with the 49ers prevailing.
49ers 24 Cowboys 23


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