NFL Undercover (Week 5 2011)

Week 4 proved to be a fairly decent week for favorites, especially for the smaller spreads, such as the 3 points that Detroit was given over Dallas which again managed to fall apart late in the game. The Bills have had a breakout year so far, highlighted by their late win against New England in Week 3, but failed to get past lowly Cincinnati on the road. I suppose their win against the Pats necessitated a reality check and they received it loud and clear from the Bengals. Seattle, which had perhaps the ugliest victory of the week last Sunday against Arizona, put together a great game against the Atlanta Hawks and nearly came away with a win…but 61-yard field goals can be kind of hard to come by and I’m thinking Pete Carroll’s optimism may have got the best of him when he decided upon that play late in the game. The Packers continued to roll right along in their big, nasty win over the visiting Denver Broncos, but will face stronger competition this week when they head down south to take on the dirty birds of Atlanta who will need to put together a stellar game if they want to stop Rodgers and Co.

My progress so far:

Straight up: 9-3

ATS: 6-6-1


New Orleans @ Carolina

Current Spread: New Orleans -5.5

This should be a great game filled with gobs of offense and plenty of entertaining plays. Drew Brees will be looking to show young whippersnapper, Cam Newton, a thing or two and I’m sure Cam will try and return the favor. Newton has been one of the biggest stories of the year and his stunning success so far in the NFL certainly bodes well for Carolina and their future over the long term. However, I am of the opinion that Carolina’s streak is going to run out of steam at some point this season, but I don’t see it happening this week. I realize it is tentative to call Carolina’s progress a “streak” considering they only have one win so far, but they have played every team they’ve faced incredibly well and even gave Green Bay a small scare. However, I just don’t see the Panthers giving New Orleans too much of a challenge. Brees has a tendency to outperform just about every opposing quarterback he faces and his offense is loaded with high-end talent that is dialed into his style, preference and ability. The Saints are currently scoring about 35 points per game, which is nearly 15 more than Carolina, but they do sport one of the worst defenses in the league as they give up about 30 points per game. If Cam can keep up with Brees’ ability to score, this game might end up being a lot closer than a lot of fans might expect. All New Orleans has to do to win this game is play to their average level. Carolina, on the other-hand, will need a rather flawless performance if they want to stop the Saints from marching all over them.

My Pick?

Take New Orleans against the spread $$


Philadelphia @ Buffalo

Current Spread: Philadelphia -3

Buffalo was disappointing in Week 4 and its defense provided far too many opportunities for Colt McCoy and the Bengals to take advantage of which they did time and again. The Bills came into this game after earning the emotional win over long-term rival, New England, the week prior. I believe that they greatly overlooked the Bengals and probably assumed that they would be easily coasting to yet another win. I’m assuming that’s roughly the same way the Eagles felt taking on the San Francisco 49ers, who took down Vick and company and left them sitting at an atrocious 1-3. It was a very close loss, but when you have put together the “dream team” that Philadelphia should be, you’re simply not supposed to get into situations where you lose by a point to a far inferior team. I expect the Eagles to continue their downward trajectory when they visit Buffalo this Sunday. The Eagles have been a tough team to peg down this year as they’ve shown promise, yet have also looked like a team out of sorts many times as well. They are loaded with top-tier talent, and everything on the page says these guys should be elite, but it just hasn’t happened yet. I think Buffalo had a serious gut-check in Cincinnati and they are going to come out ready to play a vicious game in order to prove that the Bengals loss was a fluke. The Bills have the best offense in the NFL and have a defense that matches up very well with the Eagles. Buffalo is averaging 11 points more a game than Philadelphia and I believe that figure will be the deciding factor in this one. Add in home field advantage and I like the Bills in this matchup and fully expect them to pull out a decent win here.

My Pick?

Take Buffalo and the points $$


Seattle @ New York Giants

Current Spread: NYG -10

Seattle has lost its groove. Matt Hasselbeck continues to turn heads as he revitalizes the Titans, while Tarvaris Jackson has quickly ended any hope Seahawks fans may have had for a decent season. His inept passing has been glaringly bad, the offensive line disintegrates on just about every play and the running game isn’t helping matters either. I will consider his performance against Atlanta a fluke until he gives me reason to think otherwise. The only positive Seattle currently enjoys is their defense, which has been surprisingly strong so far. However, a defense rarely wins games all on its own and Tarvaris needs to step up. He’s probably not going to. New York is going to have a field day with the Hawks, and I expect a score somewhat similar to the 24-0 drubbing that Pittsburgh gave Seattle in Week 2. The Seahawks are usually terrible on the road and I expect that to definitely hold true here as New York is a very tough place to try and put together a win as a visiting team. I hate to constantly advise everyone to bet against Seattle, but its been a safe proposition so far this year and until Pete Carroll hands the reigns over to Whitehurst I just don’t see any reason to believe anything will change.

My Pick?

Take NYG against the spread $$$

Green Bay is only getting 5.5 points on the road against Atlanta. Talk about disrespect! The Packers should easily win this game with their far superior defense and super-potent offense. Atlanta was nearly taken down by Seattle last week and Green Bay should run this game from start to finish. The Falcons have had a tough time with consistency so far this season and I just don’t see why that should get much better against the bulletproof Packers.

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