For NFL fans it is never too early to start thinking about the playoffs. With the calander turning to December, and the league entering week 13 of the schedule, it is time to start looking at possible playoff teams. For now let us focus our attention on the divisional winners for the American Football Conference.
It looks as if the New England Patriots are in an excellent position to win the AFC East. The Pats currently sit at 8-3 and have games remaining against winless Indy and two stuggling divisional opponents: Miami and Buffalo. Throw in a visit to Washington to play the Redskins (4-7), and it is all but certain that New England can begin post season ticket sales.
For the AFC North, the question of the divisional winner is important, yet not critical to the playoff chances of the division’s top two teams. The Baltimore Ravens (8-3) seem to have a relatively easy path to the playoffs. The Ravens play the hapless Colts, the fading Chargers and have two games with the Cleveland Browns (4-7). The Pittsburgh Steelers are also 8-3, but the schedule is not quite as accomodating. The Steelers, like Baltimore, have two games with the Browns and a game with Cinncinnati. However, the Steelers must make a road trip to visit the 49ers (9-2). One of these teams will claim the AFC North crown while the other will likely be the first wildcard team from the AFC. The Cinncinnati Bengals, the third team from the AFC North, will also figure prominently in the wild card race.
In the AFC South, the clear edge must go to the Houston Texans (8-3). This is in spite of the fact that the Texans are relying on their third string quarterback, rookie T.J. Yates. Although Houston’s next two games are against solid clubs, the Texans finish the season with Carolina, Indianapolis and home to their closest division rival, the Tennessee Titans. The Texans are all but gauranteed to finish with at least 10 wins. This means that the Titans would have to run the table to claim the division title since Houston would hold the divisional record advantage over a 10-6 Tennessee team.
This brings us to the AFC West. This is the most difficult division in the AFC to predict. It is a two team race now with both Kansas City and San Diego fading from contention. However, what is the best way to handicap the battle between Oakland and Denver? Currently the Raiders hold a one game advantage over the 6-5 Broncos. However, given the struggles of both teams, it is necessary to look at their remaing schedules closely.
Oakland has a difficult game against the Dolphins in a 1:00 PM Eastern game at Miami (always difficult for a West Coast team). Then Hue Jackson’s club must travel to Green Bay to face the undefeated Packers. Following this, the Detroit Lions visit Oakland, and then the Raiders finish the season with division rivals Kansas City and San Diego. Oakland could go 1-4, 4-1 or somewhere in between.
The Denver Broncos have winnable games at Minnesota, at Buffalo and home against Kansas City. The Broncos also play host to a Chicago Bears team that has lost their starting quarterback as well as welcoming the New England Patriots to Mile High. In my estimation, the Broncos will win at least two of their final five games. Of course, if the Tebow magic continues, the Broncos could go 4-1. This division could very well come down to the final weekend of the season.
Were the Raiders and Broncos to finish with identical records, the tiebreakers would begin with divisional records since the teams split their season series. Here the Broncos have a slight advantage with a 3-2 mark and one game remaining while the Raiders are 2-2 with two games to play.
If the teams finish with identical divisional records, the next tiebreaker is the record against common opponents. Denver and Oakland share 12 common opponents. Both teams are currently 4-3, with 5 games remaining against common opponents. Here the schedule slightly favors the Raiders. However, were the tiebreakers to go to confernce records, the Broncos currently have a game advantage with three conference games remaining. It certainly will make for an interesting final five weeks of the regular season.